Kimi K4 Release Date: What We Know and How the Prediction Settles

Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 in July 2026, and people who follow AI models are asking when Kimi K4 will arrive. At the time of writing, in late September 2026, Moonshot has not announced a date, and its own website does not mention a Kimi K4. One live prediction on versus asks by what date Kimi K4 will be released, with two answers: 31 October 2026 and 31 December 2026. This guide covers what Moonshot has released so far, what counts as a Kimi K4 release, how the prediction settles and what a position can cost you.

The Short Answer

• No date yet. Moonshot AI has not announced Kimi K4 or a release date for it. Its latest flagship is Kimi K3, released on 16 July 2026.
• Two deadlines, and both can be right. The answers are 31 October 2026 and 31 December 2026. A release before the end of October makes both answers right.
• It has to be public. The rules count a release anyone can use, not a closed beta or a private preview, and an in-between version such as a Kimi K3.5 does not count.
• You can lose the whole amount. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p, and a position that settles at 0p is lost in full.

Who Makes Kimi

Kimi is the family of AI models made by Moonshot AI. According to its own website, Moonshot AI was founded in spring 2023 and is based in Beijing. Its models are offered through the Kimi app and website, and through the Kimi API for developers.

Moonshot describes Kimi K3 as its most capable model so far, with 2.8 trillion parameters, native vision capabilities and a context window of one million tokens. Its launch post said Kimi K3 could be used from the day it was announced on Kimi.ai, Kimi Work, Kimi Code and the Kimi API.

How Moonshot Has Released Kimi Models So Far

Moonshot's research page gives a date for each release. These are the main steps in the Kimi K series so far:

• Kimi K1.5: 20 January 2025.
• Kimi K2: 11 July 2025.
• Kimi K2 Thinking: 6 November 2025.
• Kimi K2.5: 27 January 2026.
• Kimi K2.6: 20 April 2026.
• Kimi K3: 16 July 2026.

So Kimi K3 came a little over a year after Kimi K2, with a new version every two to four months in between. Those dates are history, not a schedule, and Moonshot's own website gives no date for its next model.

What Counts as a Kimi K4 Release

The rules decide what counts, so read them before you open a position. In short:

• The model. Any model in the Kimi K4 family counts, as does a model clearly presented as the next flagship after Kimi K3 under another name. An in-between version such as a Kimi K3.5 does not.
• Public access. The model has to be open to the general public. An open beta or a waitlist anyone can join counts. A closed beta or private access for selected users does not.
• Clear evidence. Moonshot AI has to announce the model as generally available, or it has to be publicly usable and clearly labelled on the company's official website. A model name that shows up by mistake or as a placeholder does not count.

The Kimi K3 launch, on Kimi.ai and the Kimi API from the day it was announced, is the kind of public release the rules describe. A preview for selected testers would not be enough.

How This Prediction Settles

Every market on versus names the source that settles it before you trade. For this one, the rules name official information from Moonshot AI. Each date is a separate answer with its own price between 0p and 100p, and that price is the market's estimate of how likely a public release by that date is. The cut off for each date is 05:59 Central European time on the morning after it. If Kimi K4 is publicly released in time, a contract on that answer settles at 100p. If not, it settles at 0p.

Because the answers are deadlines, more than one can be right:

• A release on 20 October 2026 would make both answers right.
• A release on 20 November 2026 would make only 31 December right.
• No release by the end of the year would make neither answer right.

So the later deadline can never be less likely than the earlier one. Its price will usually be higher, and the two prices do not have to add up to 100p.

A Worked Example

Say the 31 December answer trades at 20p. You put 400p into it, which buys 20 contracts. The transaction fee is 2% of the stake, added on top, so it comes to 8p and 408p leaves your balance. The fee is shown before you confirm.

• If Kimi K4 is publicly released before the cut off: the 20 contracts settle at 100p each, 2,000p in total.
• If it is not: they settle at 0p, and the 408p is gone.
• If you change your mind first: while the market is open you can sell at the current price. Say weeks pass without any news from Moonshot and the price falls to 10p. Selling the 20 contracts at 10p gives you 200p back. You take a loss, but a smaller one than if they settled at 0p.

In every case, the most this position could cost you was the 408p you saw before confirming. There is no leverage and no margin call, so a market moving against you cannot leave you owing money.

What Can Move the Prices

Prices on a release date prediction follow the news: an announcement from Moonshot AI, a public preview or reports that a new model is being tested can move them quickly. As a deadline gets closer without a release, the price of that answer tends to fall, because there is less time left for it to be right.

None of that decides the result: only a public release that meets the rules does. A price is only the market's estimate at a given moment, not a promise, and a release that looks close can still slip.

Checks Before You Open a Position

1. Read the rules first. They say which model counts, what public access means and which source settles the market.
2. Check which question it is. A question about Kimi K4 is not a question about any new Kimi model: a Kimi K3.5 would not count.
3. Note the deadlines. 31 October and 31 December 2026, each with a cut off on the following morning, Central European time. When markets close explains how deadlines work.
4. Decide what you are prepared to lose in full. The stake and the 2% fee are shown before you confirm, and together they are the most the position can cost you. Treat that total as money you may not get back.

Safer Play is built into the app: deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, alongside GAMSTOP. The safer play page explains each tool.

Where to Find This Prediction

versus is a prediction market app across politics, finance, sport, AI, crypto and entertainment. The current predictions include AI questions such as this one: open any market to see its question, the price of each answer and the source that settles it. How it works follows one position from opening to settlement, and how to verify market rules goes through the rules line by line.

versus is licensed by the UK Gambling Commission under account 101143, which you can check on the Commission's public register. Positions settle in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency, and customer money is held separately from company money.

The Bottom Line

A Kimi K4 release date prediction comes down to one event: a public release of Kimi K4, as the rules define it, before each cut off. Moonshot has not announced a date, prices can move with every piece of news, and any position can settle at 0p, so only put in what you are comfortable losing. Prediction markets are entertainment with real money at stake, not a way to make money.

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