How Can I Use Prediction Markets for Election Outcomes in the UK

The short answer: how to trade election outcomes on a prediction market

To use a prediction market for an election outcome, you open an account with a licensed platform, add funds and buy a contract on the outcome you expect. Each contract has a price, and that price is the market's estimate of how likely the outcome is. You can lose the whole amount you put into a position, so only use money you can afford to lose.

If you are in the UK, start with the licence. Operating these markets in Great Britain without a UK Gambling Commission licence is not legal. versus is a prediction market app across politics, finance, sport, AI, crypto and entertainment, and it is licensed by the Commission under account 101143. You can look that number up on the Gambling Commission public register. Two well-known names, Polymarket and Kalshi, block UK users and are not licensed in the UK. Using a VPN to get round a block puts you outside their terms and outside UK protection.

When you compare platforms, apply these criteria:

• Regulation and licensing: check that the platform holds a licence where you live. In Great Britain that means the UK Gambling Commission.
• Ease of use: the question, the price and the rules of each market should be easy to find and read, especially if you are new.
• Transaction fees: know the full cost before you confirm. On versus, the only fee on a trade is a transaction fee of 2% of the stake, added on top of the stake and shown before you confirm.
• Market range: some platforms cover only politics, others cover several subjects. Listings change, so check what is open before you sign up.

Signing up usually means creating an account and, at some point, proving who you are. On versus, identity verification (a photo of your government ID and a selfie) is required before a first withdrawal, under anti money laundering law, and it usually clears in minutes. You then add funds. versus settles in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency. It does not take credit cards, because licensed operators in Great Britain may not accept them.

Then you choose a market. Here is a hypothetical example. Say a market asks whether Candidate A will win an election, and that outcome trades at 40p. The market puts the chance at about 40%. If you think the chance is higher, you can buy that outcome. If Candidate A wins, each contract settles at 100p. If Candidate A loses, each contract settles at 0p and you lose the whole amount you put in. While the market is open you can also sell your position at the current price, which may be higher or lower than the price you paid.

Election markets are speculative. Treat trading as entertainment, not as a way to make money or to fix money problems. Set a budget before you start and keep to it.

Understanding the scenario: why trade on election outcomes?

People use election markets in two ways. Some only read them, because a price is the market's live probability estimate. Reading a price does not require you to trade. Others take a position because they hold a considered view on the outcome and accept that they may be wrong. Neither is a route to income. If you trade, expect that you may lose what you put in.

Prices move as news arrives, so a market can react faster than a poll that takes days to run. Research suggests prediction markets can be well calibrated, but that is not a promise. A price is an estimate, and both markets and polls have been wrong about elections before. Use the price as one input next to polling, official information and careful reporting.

The platform matters as much as the market. A platform licensed where you live has to follow that regulator's rules. On versus, customer money is held separately from company money, complaints have an independent route, and every market names the source that settles it before you trade.

Look at how clearly a platform presents each market. You should be able to read the exact question and the settlement source without hunting for them. Support and Safer Play tools should be easy to reach too.

Range is the last factor. versus covers politics alongside finance, sport, AI, crypto and entertainment, but no platform lists every election. Open markets are shown on the predictions page, so check there to see whether a market is listed for the election you follow.

In short, an election market puts a number on a political question, and trading it puts real money at risk. Choose a licensed platform, read the rules of the market and decide in advance how much you can afford to lose. For more guides on comparing platforms by licence, market range and ease of use, see the versus blog.

Step-by-step workflow: taking a position in a prediction market

Here is the process from start to finish.

1. Choose a platform. Check the licence first, then fees, market range and ease of use. In Great Britain the platform needs a UK Gambling Commission licence. You must be 18 or over.
2. Create an account. Sign up with your own details. versus has an iPhone app on the App Store ("versus | Prediction Markets"), an Android app you download directly from versusapp.com, and a web app that runs in a browser. Expect identity checks: on versus, identity verification is required before a first withdrawal.
3. Add funds. Deposit only what fits the budget you set. On versus, deposits are free within normal limits and credit cards are not accepted. Safer Play in the app includes deposit limits and loss limits.
4. Research the market. Read the exact question and the source that settles it. Look at polling, official information and careful reporting from more than one outlet. Use public information only. If you hold confidential inside knowledge about an election, do not trade on it. Research can inform your view, but it cannot remove the risk.
5. Open your position. Find the market on the predictions page when one is listed. Where a bookmaker quotes odds for a bet, versus shows a price between 0p and 100p, and that price is the market's probability estimate. Choose your stake and check the fee, which is shown before you confirm. Say your stake is £10. The 2% transaction fee is 20p, added on top, so you pay £10.20 in total. The price shows what the market thinks. It is not a promise about the result.
6. Monitor the market. Prices move with news and sentiment. While the market is open you can sell your position at the current price, so you do not have to wait for the result. That price may be lower than the one you paid. If you want a break, Safer Play includes reality checks and time out.
7. Wait for settlement. After the election, the market settles on the source named in its rules. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p. If your prediction was wrong, you lose the whole amount you put in. On versus your loss can never exceed that amount, because there is no leverage and no margin call.

Work through these steps and you will know what you are buying, what it costs and what you can lose before you confirm anything. For the product basics, read how it works.

Costs involved: what you need to know

The costs of trading an election outcome fall into three groups: what you deposit, what you pay per trade and what you can lose. Check each one before you start.

• Initial deposit: some platforms set a minimum deposit, so check their current terms before you sign up. Deposit only what fits your budget.
• Transaction fees: fee models differ. Some platforms charge a flat amount and others a percentage, so check their current terms. versus charges a transaction fee of 2% of the stake, added on top of the stake, with no cap. It is shown before you confirm and it is the only fee on a trade.
• Currency conversion: if a platform runs in a currency other than yours, your bank or card provider may charge for conversion, so check before you deposit. versus prices run from 0p to 100p and it settles in ordinary money, not cryptocurrency.
• Potential losses: this is the biggest cost. If your prediction is wrong, the contract settles at 0p and you lose the whole amount you put in. In the hypothetical £10 example above, you would lose the £10.20 you paid. Set a budget and treat it as money spent.
• Withdrawals: some platforms charge for withdrawals, so check their current terms. On versus, deposits and withdrawals are free within normal limits. Withdrawals go back to the method you deposited with, and timings depend on the method and are shown in the app.
• Regulation and tax: regulation mainly shapes what a platform may do. For example, licensed operators in Great Britain may not accept credit cards. On versus, regulation adds no extra charge, because the 2% transaction fee is the only fee on a trade. Tax rules depend on your own circumstances, so check official guidance if you are unsure.

Costs differ from platform to platform, so compare them on the same basis: the total cost of a trade, the withdrawal terms and the most you can lose. Then decide what you can afford to lose, not what you hope to get back.

Outcome and results: what happens after the election?

When the election is over, the market settles on the source named in its rules. Early projections and exit polls can move the price while the market is open, but they are not the result. Depending on the question, a confirmed result can take longer than election night.

First, look at the outcome of your position. Take the hypothetical market above, where you bought the Candidate A outcome at 40p. If Candidate A won, each contract settled at 100p. If Candidate A lost, each contract settled at 0p and the amount you put in is gone. Prediction markets are not a source of income, so only ever use money you can afford to lose.

Next, review how you reached your view. Did you rely on sound public information, or on a hunch? Being right once does not prove a method works, and being wrong once does not prove it fails. Election outcomes are uncertain, and no amount of analysis removes that.

Check in with yourself as well. If you spent more time or money than you planned, use the Safer Play tools in the app: deposit limits, loss limits, reality checks, time out and self exclusion, including GAMSTOP. Never trade to win back a loss.

Remember that results can surprise. A price of 40p never meant the outcome could not happen. It meant the market thought it less likely than not. Read an unexpected result as a reminder that prices are estimates.

Finally, review the platform. Were the rules clear, was the settlement source named before you traded, and was the fee shown before you confirmed? If not, apply the criteria above and look again. The versus FAQ answers common questions.

In short, the period after an election is a good time to look back calmly, check what you spent and decide whether you want to trade again at all.

FAQ

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is a platform where people trade contracts on the outcome of future events, such as elections. On versus, prices run from 0p to 100p and a price is the market's probability estimate. A winning contract settles at 100p and a losing one at 0p.

Is it legal to trade on election outcomes in the UK?

It depends on the platform. Operating these markets in Great Britain without a UK Gambling Commission licence is not legal. versus is licensed by the Commission under account 101143. Polymarket and Kalshi block UK users and are not licensed in the UK. You must be 18 or over to trade.

How do I choose a reliable prediction market platform?

Check the licence on the public register first. Then look for a fee that is shown before you confirm, a named settlement source for every market, customer money held separately from company money, an independent route for complaints and Safer Play tools. versus meets each of these points. Read about versus and the terms before you sign up.

Can I lose all the money I put in?

Yes. If your prediction is wrong, the contract settles at 0p and you lose the whole amount you put into that position. On versus your loss can never exceed that amount, because there is no leverage and no margin call.

18+ only. Trade responsibly. BeGambleAware.org and GAMSTOP.