Prediction
Answer Options
Donald Trump showed his middle finger to a heckler at a Ford plant in Minnesota on January 13, 2026: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip This market will resolve to "Yes" if photo or video evidence shows Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying footage or photographs must show Trump raising his middle finger while keeping his remaining fingers down, in the gesture commonly known as flipping the bird. The evidence must show him making the gesture in a context that could reasonably suggest it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not establish that definitively. Past instances would both count, such as the gesture made at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) and the one made while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553). Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger with the rest of his fingers down, in a context that gives no indication the gesture was intentional or aimed at any individual or group, will not count. AI-generated images and video will not count. The primary resolution source will be photo or video evidence of Trump raising his middle finger.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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