Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the United States carries out no qualifying strike that directly hits Iran between 17 September 2026, 7:24:30 PM Iran Standard Time, and 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. A single qualifying strike that directly hits Iran inside that window makes it NO. A qualifying strike is one the United States initiates, that directly hits Iran, and that is either an air strike - bombs, air-to-surface missiles or drones launched from aircraft - or a surface-to-surface missile strike, a category that takes in surface-to-surface missiles, for example cruise or ballistic missiles, as well as one-way attack drones. None of these count: cyber operations; ground incursions; fire from small arms; surface-to-air missile strikes; gunfire from naval vessels; artillery fire, whether from howitzers, other artillery pieces, mortars or rocket artillery like MLRS launchers; smaller surface-to-surface hits such as loitering munitions with a short range, FPV drones or anti-tank guided missiles; any munition intercepted or destroyed before it strikes, including debris, fragments or wreckage of it that falls on Iran, however much damage that causes; and any threat, authorisation or announcement of force that is never carried out. Iran means its land territory together with its internal waters; its territorial sea and its airspace are not included. Where a border is disputed, every area that Iran claimed and held under de facto control as of 17 September 2026, 7:24:30 PM Iran Standard Time counts as Iran. Whether a strike happened, who carried it out and when is judged mainly on what these sources agree on: official information released by the US and Iranian governments and their armed forces, together with broad agreement among reliable reports. If they conflict on any of those points, settlement waits until whichever comes first - the sources agreeing, or three full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) passing from the first credible report of evidence of the strike - and that wait applies even if it runs beyond 31 October. If reports still conflict when the third day ends, the incident is judged on the whole of the information those sources offer at that moment; no single statement, denial or piece of evidence prevails where that overall picture contradicts it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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