Prediction
Answer Options
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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