Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the listed date, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire itself begins afterwards. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count towards the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that set out terms for a future peace but contain no explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces, although a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating that an official ceasefire agreement between the two has been reached will suffice.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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