Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if, by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET, Russia and Ukraine reach a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major Ukrainian-held cities in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. Otherwise, it resolves No. For this market, the major Ukrainian-held cities are Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market resolves Yes regardless of if or when the agreement takes effect. Any agreement that cedes de facto military control of the listed cities qualifies, even if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to withdraw forces from Kosovo without recognizing Kosovo’s autonomy or independence, would qualify under this standard. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control qualifies regardless of which group or entity replaces Ukraine’s control. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement counts. If Russia captures these cities through military action, that does not qualify for Yes. The primary resolution source is an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that an agreement has been reached may also be used.
Reported by @Reuters