Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, between 1 January 2026 and 30 November 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, at least four separate tropical cyclones are rated Category 5 while they are in the North Pacific, east of the International Date Line. Otherwise NO. The highest number ever recorded in this area in one calendar year is three. A storm counts as Category 5 when an operational advisory gives its maximum sustained wind, measured as a one-minute average, as 157 mph or more, the Category 5 threshold of the Saffir-Simpson scale. For this area these advisories come from NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) and its Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). Genevieve, Lowell and Polo have already been rated Category 5 in 2026 and all count, so one more storm is needed. Each storm counts only once, however many advisories or separate spells show it at Category 5. One advisory at Category 5 within the window is enough, whatever the storm's strength before or after, and once a fourth storm has been reported at Category 5 the answer is YES even if it weakens afterwards. Storms in every other basin, the Atlantic included, are ignored. Only the operational advisories issued while a storm is active matter. If a best-track analysis or a Tropical Cyclone Report written after the storm later changes its peak strength or category, that change is ignored. An advisory corrected for a clerical mistake counts in its corrected form. Decided by the operational advisories of the NHC and the CPHC (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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