Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, at any time from 4 September 2026, 16:45:09 UTC through 31 December 2026, 23:59 UTC (6:59 PM ET), OpenAI opens an Astra model numbered 6.1 or higher to the general public. A model qualifies when OpenAI made it, its name or model identifier contains Astra in any capitalization, with or without a prefix, suffix, date or descriptor, and its version number is 6.1 or above; for instance Astra 6.2, GPT-6.1 Astra or GPT Astra 7 would count. GPT-6 Astra itself does not, whether as a later rollout, a promotional version, a Pro or Fast variant or a snapshot. Tier-labelled models (for example GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra or Luna, and their successors) do not qualify, and neither do lines built for one task or one kind of input and output, for example the Cyber, Daybreak, Codex, GPT Image and Realtime models. The model must have launched and be publicly accessible, which includes an open beta or an open rolling waitlist; a closed beta or any private access does not count. Either OpenAI publicly announces the release, clearly describing it and stating that the model can be used by the general public, or the model is in fact publicly accessible and the release is explicitly labelled on OpenAI's official website; a mislabelled page, placeholder text or a version name that does not match a model the general public can actually use does not count. Otherwise NO. OpenAI's official information is the primary basis for deciding the outcome, with agreement among reliable reports used for additional verification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
