Prediction
Answer Options
Settles YES when one EU country's own national government formally lays a qualifying attack on its soil at Russia's door, at any point from 19 September 2026, 01:23:15 UTC through 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET (1 January 2027, 04:59 UTC). Otherwise NO. Counts as a qualifying attack: sabotage, arson, planting or detonating a device built to explode or to start a fire, or a physical attack on people or property, done inside the territory of a European Union member country on 1 August 2026 or later. Ruled out are cyber operations; electronic interference such as jamming or faking satellite navigation signals; spying, surveillance and reconnaissance; disinformation and influence campaigns; any breach of a country's airspace or territorial waters; drones, missiles and other munitions launched by Russia's armed forces, intercepted or not; and anything merely threatened or plotted but never carried through. The blame has to be public and it has to be owned. An authorised representative of the affected country, speaking officially, must say that the Russian state - its armed forces or intelligence services included - ordered, directed or carried out the attack, or that people acting on Russian instructions did. Charges brought by that same country's prosecutors, alleging the attack was done for those Russian services, work just as well. Hedged language falls short: calling Russian involvement suspected, likely, probable or impossible to rule out, or saying only that an attack looks like Russia's handiwork or fits its pattern. So do statements from officials who stay unnamed, from a different country's government, or from European Union and NATO institutions, if nothing else backs them. Blame issued before 19 September 2026, 01:23:15 UTC is too early to count, and so is a renewed attribution over an attack that has already been attributed. Once that statement or charge exists the result is locked in at YES: a later retraction changes nothing, a Russian denial changes nothing, and neither does whatever any court finds afterwards. Decided by what the affected member country's own government says and publishes (official source); broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
