Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves YES if a qualifying military encounter occurs between U.S. and Russian military forces from May 28, 2025, through January 1, 2026, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves NO. What qualifies as a military encounter: The incident must involve a direct use of force between the armed forces of the United States and Russia. Qualifying actions include missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanges of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement. What does NOT qualify: Non-violent incidents—including airspace violations, cyberattacks, and warning shots—do not count. For example, an incident comparable to the June 2021 Black Sea confrontation involving Russian forces and HMS Defender would not qualify. Intentional physical collisions without the direct use of weapons are also excluded, regardless of the resulting damage. This includes aerial interceptions and naval ramming. For example, an incident comparable to the 2023 Black Sea encounter in which a Russian Su-27 damaged the propeller of a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, causing it to crash, would not qualify. Military contractors: Contractors count only when credible reporting confirms that they were operating under the direct command or coordination of the relevant country’s armed forces. An incident comparable to the Battle of Khasham would therefore not qualify. Resolution source: A consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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