Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if the European Union dissolves by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. The EU is considered dissolved if any of the following occurs: (1) more than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU; (2) an official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union; or (3) the EU otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. A member state is considered to have withdrawn once it officially initiates its withdrawal and/or formally notifies the European Council of its intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market's timeframe. Primary resolution source: official information from the European Union and EU member states; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @FT
