Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network on or before January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For this market, a social network means a platform or service developed by OpenAI whose primary purpose is to let users create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or with one another through a feed, network, or similar format. Products or features that are not mainly designed to function as a social network do not count, even if they include limited interaction such as comments, reactions, or sharing, unless OpenAI clearly releases and presents them as a social network, social platform, or something equivalent. A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible. Open beta access or open rolling waitlist signups count, but a closed beta or any form of private access does not. The launch must also be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as available to the general public. A qualifying product may be either a standalone platform or social-network functionality built into another OpenAI product, as long as OpenAI clearly presents it as a social network or social platform, or similar. Messaging or messenger-style apps intended only for private one-to-one or small-group communication do not qualify. Resolution is based primarily on official information from OpenAI, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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