Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if Democratic Party of Korea leader Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement on or before January 1, 2027, at 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. A qualifying arrest or detention includes being taken into physical custody by federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement; voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement in response to an arrest warrant; being formally booked or processed after detention; being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station; surrendering at a police station or courthouse with an attorney; or being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring. An arrest warrant that is issued but not executed does not qualify. Neither does questioning or interviewing without arrest, or being named in an indictment without being arrested. Resolution is based primarily on official information from the arresting government or law-enforcement authority, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @FT
