Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, between 22 September 2026, 16:15:31 UTC and 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the Trump administration declassifies any files about extraterrestrial life, unexplained aerial phenomena, or both, that had never been publicly available before. Otherwise NO. Here the Trump administration covers the President's Executive Office and every executive-branch department, agency and subordinate office under presidential authority during Trump's presidency, including the Department of Defense (which also uses the title Department of War) and all of its components. A declassification that is only announced, and not actually carried out within this window, does not count. Official information from the US government is the main basis for the decision; broad agreement among reliable reports is also taken into account.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
