Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the specified date. The train station is considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by then, the market resolves to "No". For any change on the ISW map to count towards resolution, the shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, whatever the date. Any continuous shading reflecting "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" does not qualify. If Russia comes to control this territory as the result of a negotiated settlement, that qualifies for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the area is shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement granting Russia de jure control does not qualify on its own; actual control must be established. Once Russia has captured the train station, any subsequent loss of control does not affect resolution. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If both ISW and DeepStateMap become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be taken into account.
Reported by Versus Markets