Prediction
Answer Options
Likud Party primary elections are expected in 2026 to determine the party’s candidate list for the 2026 Knesset elections. The winner of the Likud primary is expected to take second place on the Likud list, behind the party leader. This market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary election. If no Likud primary is held by the earlier of the 2026 Knesset elections or December 31, 2026, at 22:59 CET, the market resolves to “No Primary by Knesset Election,” regardless of whether a party list has been released. An official announcement cancelling the primary is not enough by itself for this outcome. If the primary is held but the results are not definitively known by the earlier of the 2026 Knesset elections or December 31, 2026, at 22:59 CET, the market resolves to the person listed second on Likud’s candidate list for the 2026 Knesset election. If no such party list has been released by that deadline, the market resolves to “Other.” Resolution source: a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution is based solely on official information from Likud.
Reported by Versus Markets