Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, between 25 September 2026 at 17:54:28 UTC and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Donald Trump signs or issues an executive order, a proclamation or a presidential memorandum that gives artificial intelligence a new official name, or that orders the federal government or any federal agency to adopt one. Otherwise NO. The action has to put the new name in place of "artificial intelligence" as the term the US government uses for the technology itself. It makes no difference which name is picked, so "Super Intelligence" counts as much as any other. It also counts if an order gives an agency a deadline to start using such a name. Words alone are not enough: no speech, statement, interview, press conference or social media post counts, and neither does an online poll. Giving a new name only to something built around the technology, such as a federal agency or office, a programme, commission or task force, or a military service like an "AI Force", is not enough unless the technology itself gets the new name in that same action. Renaming one product, model or private company's system does not count either. If an order merely uses another term along the way without making it the official designation, that is not enough. Once a qualifying action is signed or issued inside the window, the answer is YES, whenever it takes effect and even if it is later put on hold, blocked by a court, withdrawn or replaced. Decided by official US government information, such as the Federal Register and the presidential actions posted on whitehouse.gov; broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
