Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, at or after 21 September 2026, 22:10:50 UTC and no later than 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the US President, the White House, a Cabinet member, a US agency or department with the legal power to take this step, or someone authorised to speak for one of them publicly and officially announces that diesel may no longer be exported from the United States. Otherwise NO. A ban here means a prohibition on shipping diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) out of the United States that covers all such exports or substantially all of them. Tariffs, quotas, licence requirements, bans aimed only at certain destinations and other curbs that stop short of prohibiting exports do not count, unless in practice they work as a general prohibition. A temporary ban counts as well as a permanent one, as long as the announcement makes the prohibition clear. The announcement has to state as fact that the government is enforcing such a ban now, has already put one in place without saying so before, or has firmly decided to impose one. It must make the prohibition clear and unmistakable: hinting at, referring to or describing a ban without actually communicating it is not enough, although no particular wording or name for the ban is required if its substance is plain. It must come through official channels from someone acting in an official role; casual or passing remarks in a setting not meant for official communication do not count. If the government says it accepts a deal, framework or roadmap that includes a pledge to ban diesel exports, that counts only if every party whose approval is needed for it to take effect has approved it, or if the announcement on its own presents the ban as a settled US position that does not depend on anyone else. Not enough: anonymous, unattributed or leaked remarks that are not confirmed as official; statements by people with no authority to speak for the US government; outside speculation, analysis or forecasts that a ban is coming; satire, fakes, and hacked or impersonated messages; and statements that a ban may, probably will, or would under certain conditions be imposed, rather than a present, decided position. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, this settles YES even if the ban is later reversed or never actually takes effect. Decided by official information from the US government or its authorised representatives; broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
