Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves YES if the ISW map shows that Ukraine has captured any portion of Crimea by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. If no part of Crimea meets the qualifying conditions by that deadline, the market resolves NO. What qualifies as captured territory: Any area of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map qualifies. The map can be viewed at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. A change in the map qualifies only if the shading showing Ukrainian control remains in place through the next complete ISW daily update cycle. If ISW does not publish an update on the following day, the shading must remain through the next finalized update, even if that update is released after the resolution deadline. Continuous shading categorized as either “Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours” or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” qualifies. What does NOT qualify: The black border drawn around Crimea on the ISW map does not represent Ukrainian control and therefore does not count. Once Ukraine has captured qualifying territory in Crimea, a later loss of that territory does not change the outcome. Negotiated settlement: Territory transferred to Ukraine through a negotiated settlement qualifies once Ukraine establishes actual control, even if the territory is not shaded blue on the ISW map. An announcement granting Ukraine de jure control is not sufficient by itself; Ukraine must take actual control of the territory. Resolution source: The ISW Ukraine map is the primary source. If it becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap at https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If both ISW and DeepStateMap become permanently unavailable, the outcome may be determined through a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary map glitches, display problems, or other errors are disregarded.
Reported by Versus Markets