Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the US Federal Trade Commission states publicly and on the record that it has opened or is running a formal inquiry, study or enforcement proceeding covering how artificial-intelligence firms buy, scan or throw away printed books used to train their models, at any point from 18 September 2026, 01:30:06 UTC, up to 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026. Otherwise NO. An artificial-intelligence firm here means any business that builds, trains or runs AI models, and also any contractor or supplier that buys, scans or disposes of printed volumes on such a business's behalf. Any one step is enough on its own - the bulk buying, the scanning that wrecks the volume, or the disposal of what is left - as long as it involves printed books obtained or handled by such firms to train AI models. Five kinds of act count, each of them public and attributable to the agency: an official FTC news release, or an official agency statement posted on ftc.gov or through its own channels; a Section 6(b) order sent to one or more AI firms about their buying, scanning or destruction of printed volumes, announced or published by the agency; an administrative complaint or a federal court complaint brought by the FTC on the same subject; any further public filing by the agency, in federal court or in one of its own proceedings, that confirms such an inquiry - a petition asking a court to compel compliance with a civil investigative demand being one example; or an on-the-record remark by the FTC Chair or a Commissioner, congressional testimony included, confirming that such an inquiry is open or under way. The act need not name a company. It need not contain the word "investigation", nor say that the books were meant for AI training, as long as it confirms that a formal inquiry, study or proceeding is open or running whose subject takes in the buying, scanning or destruction of printed volumes by AI firms. A wider inquiry also counts, so long as that book handling is expressly named as a matter under examination - either in the agency's own announcement, or in the text of whatever order, complaint or filing has been published. These do not count: expressions of general concern; a workshop, a request for comments, or a report that stops short of confirming such an inquiry; an acknowledgement that the agency has received or is reading the August 2026 coalition letter; an agency inquiry or a Section 6(b) study aimed at AI firms on other subjects, such as partnerships, chatbots or consumer protection, where neither the announcement nor the published text expressly covers the buying, scanning or destruction of printed books; an inquiry confined to digital copies of works - pirated files or shadow-library material, say - which leaves printed volumes out; work by any other federal agency, by state attorneys general, or by regulators abroad; and anonymous, unattributed or leaked claims that an inquiry exists, unless the agency itself confirms them publicly by the deadline. Saying that it is weighing, reviewing, monitoring or looking at the practice, or that it may investigate, is not enough without an explicit confirmation that something has been opened or is under way. If an inquiry exists but is not publicly confirmed by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, the answer is NO. Once such an act has happened the answer stays YES even if the inquiry is later dropped, narrowed or ends without enforcement. Decided by what the Federal Trade Commission itself publishes, its news-release page included (official source); broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
