Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if D4vd (a.k.a. David Anthony Burke) is released from custody between market creation and 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If D4vd is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If D4vd is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting D4vd to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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