Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves YES if it is officially announced that Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Intesa Sanpaolo, or vice versa, by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo, and must not be restricted to the subsidiaries of either company. An announcement by MPS or Intesa Sanpaolo within this market's time frame qualifies for a YES resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition or merger actually takes place. A bid or offer announcement without an indication of a settled agreement does not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, provided the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" means a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions — typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control through voting and governance rights. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest do not count. The primary resolution source is official information from MPS and Intesa Sanpaolo, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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