Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the specified date. Otherwise it resolves to "No". The islands considered for resolution are Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force or internationally backed authority has established control in its place. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence and temporary disruption of Iranian activity do not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat or claim that Iran has lost control does not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes as part of a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender or transfer agreement, it qualifies only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, that does not qualify and the market resolves to "No". The primary resolution source is official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Reported by Versus Markets