Prediction
Answer Options
Settles YES if the armed forces of Pakistan carry out a qualifying strike that lands on Afghan territory between 25 September 2026, 20:21:22 UTC and 31 October 2026, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT, UTC+4:30, which is 19:29 UTC). Otherwise NO. Two kinds of attack qualify, each started by Pakistan and each having to hit Afghanistan directly. One is a strike from the air: bombs, air-to-surface missiles and drones launched from the air. The other is a surface-to-surface missile strike: one-way attack drones plus surface-to-surface missiles, cruise and ballistic ones for example, other than the weapons ruled out below. Pakistan's own armed forces have to be the ones carrying it out. Private military companies, hired fighters and proxy groups fall outside this, and in a joint or multinational operation a strike counts only if Pakistan's forces conducted it themselves. Nothing else counts. Specifically ruled out: any munition destroyed or intercepted before impact; strikes that use surface-to-air missiles; small-arms fire; troops moving across the border on foot or in vehicles; cyber operations; guns fired from warships, and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces of every kind, mortars and rocket artillery such as multiple launch rocket systems; smaller surface-launched attacks such as short-range loitering munitions, first-person-view attack drones and anti-tank guided missiles; and force that is only threatened, authorised or announced. Debris, fragments and wreckage from an intercepted munition that come down in Afghanistan never count, whatever damage they do. Only Afghanistan's land territory and its internal waters are in scope; its airspace is not. Where a border is disputed, any territory, internal waters included, that Afghanistan both claimed and actually controlled on 25 September 2026 at 20:21:22 UTC counts as Afghan. Whether a strike happened, who carried it out and when are decided mainly by what the sources broadly agree on, taking together what the governments and armed forces of Pakistan and Afghanistan put out officially and what credible outlets report. Where those sources clash on any of the three points, the outcome waits for whichever arrives first: broad agreement across the sources, or the close of three full calendar days (Afghanistan Time) counted from the date on which the first credible evidence of the strike was reported - and that wait runs on even if it passes the closing date. If reports still clash when the third day ends, the whole body of information available from the sources at that moment decides, and no lone statement, denial or piece of presented evidence governs where that totality contradicts it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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