Prediction
Answer Options
Settles YES if, between 17 September 2026, 18:28:32 UTC and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET (1 January 2027, 04:59 UTC), Donald Trump signs or issues a presidential memorandum, a proclamation or an executive order that either makes a requirement compulsory for how developers or deployers outside government develop, train or deploy artificial intelligence models, or instructs a federal agency to put such a requirement in place within a stated period. Otherwise NO. A requirement counts as compulsory when a developer or deployer of AI models has to satisfy it as a condition for running, training or releasing a model. Examples include bans on certain named uses, caps on how autonomously a model may act, obligations that start once compute or capability reaches a set level, safety tests a model must undergo, curbs on the data used for training, and a government review before a model is launched. An order instructing an agency to create a requirement of this kind by a stated deadline also counts. Guidance, voluntary frameworks, studies, standards and reports do not count. Also left out are orders that only govern how the federal government itself uses or buys AI, orders that impose export or chip controls, orders on data-centre energy or permitting, orders on immigration, and orders that regulate nothing but AI-generated content. It is enough that a qualifying order is signed or issued inside the window above; the date it comes into force makes no difference. It still counts if it is later superseded, suspended, revoked or blocked by a court. Decided primarily by official information from the United States government, including the wording of presidential actions as published on whitehouse.gov and in the Federal Register (official sources); broad agreement among reliable reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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