Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicentre located within the state of California by 05:59:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognised under US law, including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicentre coordinates fall within California's boundaries. Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves this market to "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock. Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake must have occurred within California before the deadline above. This market will resolve based on official information from the USGS. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in the event that the USGS becomes unavailable.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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