Prediction
Answer Options
The first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks concluded in Switzerland on June 22. Mediators reported progress toward a roadmap for a final agreement, with follow-on technical discussions expected to continue. Additional context is available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks. This market resolves to the country where the next qualifying senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks begins by October 1, 2026, 5:59 AM CEST. What qualifies: The event must be a deliberately organized, in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning relations between the United States and Iran. Senior representatives of both governments must participate in an official capacity and be authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments. Indirect diplomacy qualifies when it takes place in person through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors, provided senior U.S. and Iranian representatives participate in the same formal diplomatic process with their governments’ knowledge and authorization. The representatives do not need to occupy the same room at the same time. What does NOT qualify: Follow-on technical discussions arising from the June 22 Switzerland round do not qualify on their own. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings are also excluded unless they form part of a newly and formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, accidental encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, and conversations not deliberately intended for diplomacy or negotiation do not count. Format and confirmation requirements: The meeting must occur in person, including qualifying indirect in-person diplomacy, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or confirmed through a consensus of credible reporting. Remote meetings, telephone calls, and any meeting where the relevant parties are not physically present do not qualify. Multiple-country talks: If a qualifying round takes place across more than one country, the market resolves to the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. Regional outcomes: If the next qualifying round starts in an unlisted country in the Middle East or North Africa, the market resolves to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If it starts in an unlisted European country, it resolves to “Other - Europe.” Regional classifications are determined using the U.S. State Department’s “Countries and Areas List” at https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list. Countries classified under “Europe and Eurasia” are treated as European, while countries classified under “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” are treated as part of the Middle East/North Africa region. If the next qualifying round begins in an unlisted country outside both designated regions, the market resolves to “Other.” If no qualifying senior-level round begins by October 1, 2026, 5:59 AM CEST, the market resolves to “No Meeting by September 30.” Resolution source: Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, together with a consensus of credible reporting.
Reported by Versus Markets