Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief of U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel, or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed. An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market's time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the U.S. federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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