Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if, on or before the end of 31 October 2026 (ET, New York time), Meta makes the AI model codenamed Watermelon available to the general public, under whatever name it finally carries. A model counts if it is named Watermelon or if Meta, or broad agreement among reliable news reports, identifies it as the model codenamed Watermelon. The model must have launched and be publicly accessible, which includes an open beta or an open rolling waitlist; a closed beta or any private access does not count. Either Meta publicly announces the release, clearly describing it and stating that the model is accessible to the general public, or the model is in fact publicly accessible and the release is explicitly labelled on Meta's official website; a mislabelled page, placeholder text or a version name that does not match a model the general public can actually use does not count. Otherwise NO. Meta's official information is the primary basis for deciding the outcome, with agreement among reliable reports used for additional verification.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
