Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E in Vodianske, Donetsk Oblast, by 05:59 CET/CEST on the day following the specified date. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of it is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If it is not shaded red by then, the market will resolve to "No". For any change on the ISW map to qualify, the shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Continuous shading reflecting "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine" will not. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, that will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the area is shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement granting Russia de jure control will not qualify; actual control must be established. Once Russia has captured the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not count toward the resolution of this market. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/UfqGdzp9QdZ8LtAh8 The primary resolution source will be the ISW Ukraine map. If that map becomes unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Reported by Versus Markets