Prediction
Answer Options
For this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as defined by the NHC Saffir-Simpson scale. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php A landfall occurs when the hurricane’s surface center intersects the coastline, as defined in the NHC glossary. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL This market resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories, between market creation and January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. The market may resolve based on the NHC’s initial advisory on whether a storm made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or contradicting analysis. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be honored if they indicate that a qualifying landfall occurred.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @RyanNBC6
