Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to Anthropic’s public ticker symbol in connection with a qualifying IPO. An official announcement from Anthropic that it will IPO under a specific ticker symbol is sufficient to resolve the market. If the ticker used by Anthropic in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a listed ticker with additional letters denoting a share class, it counts as that listed ticker. For example, $ANTH.A or $ANTHA would resolve to $ANTH. If Anthropic announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not treated as the same ticker under that rule, the market stays open until Anthropic’s first day of public trading. It then resolves to the ticker of the share class with the greatest market capitalization, calculated as shares outstanding multiplied by the first-day closing share price. If that is also tied, the market resolves to the ticker that comes first alphabetically. Under the share-class rule, $ANTH.A and $ANTH.B count as the same ticker. If Anthropic IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by January 1, 2028, 5:59 AM CET, the market resolves to “Other.” Primary sources are official information from Anthropic and the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant figure is not displayed there, another reliable source may be used. If the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day is interrupted, including by a circuit breaker or half-day session, the official closing price of the abbreviated session is used. If no official closing price is published, the closing price on the next trading day with an official closing price is used and treated as the first day of trading.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
