Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted, annualized GDP growth rate for full-year 2026, as reported in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ first “Advance Estimate” release for Q4 2026, is below 0. Otherwise, it resolves to “No”. That release is expected in January 2027 and will be available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Only the first report labeled “Advance Estimate” for Q4 2026, and specifically the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth figure it provides, will be used for resolution. Any later revisions or updates will not be considered.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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