Prediction
Answer Options
For each listed individual, this market resolves Yes if it is announced that they will leave the Trump administration, or if they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration, by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. An announcement of the individual’s resignation or removal before the deadline immediately resolves that option to Yes, regardless of when the announced departure actually takes effect. For this market, the Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles in the U.S. federal government, including Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, and White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced through official government channels. The primary resolution source is official information from the Trump administration. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @WSJ
