Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if there is a military encounter between Israeli and Turkish military forces by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For this market, a “military encounter” means any incident involving the use of force, including missile strikes, artillery fire, exchanges of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Israeli and Turkish forces. Non-violent incidents will not qualify, including warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land only in territorial waters or merely pass through airspace. Intentional ship ramming will count only if it causes significant damage to a military vessel, such as breaching the hull or sinking the ship; minor damage such as scrapes or dents will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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