Prediction
Answer Options
Parliamentary elections in Somaliland are expected to be scheduled for late March 2026. This market resolves to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives election, also known as Golaha Wakiilada. If no election takes place by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET, this market resolves to “No election before 2027.” If an election takes place but the results are not definitively known by that deadline, the market stays open until certified results are released. If the results are still not definitively known by April 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CEST, it resolves to “Other.” If multiple parties tie for the most seats, the tie is broken in favor of the party that received more valid votes. If there is still a tie, it resolves to the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. Resolution is based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. Resolution follows the election result according to a consensus of credible reporting. If there is any ambiguity, resolution is based solely on official results from the Somaliland National Electoral Commission, also known as Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka, at slnec.net.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Somali_Stream
