Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory within Dobropillia by 05:59 CET/CEST on February 1, 2026. Territory is considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under one of the layers specified below on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise the market resolves to "No". For any change on the ISW map to count towards resolution, the shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalised ISW update is published, whatever the date. Any continuous shading reflecting "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine" or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" will qualify. Once a qualifying condition has been met, any subsequent loss of control does not affect resolution. If Russia comes to control the specified territory as the result of a negotiated settlement, that qualifies for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the area is shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement granting Russia de jure control does not qualify on its own; actual control must be established. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If both ISW and DeepStateMap become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be taken into account. Note: the resolution date given here, January 31, 2026, has already passed. If this is meant as the first bucket of a live date-bucket market, the dates need updating.
Reported by Versus Markets