Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025 possesses a nuclear weapon by January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. If a US ally participates in a nuclear-sharing arrangement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, that does not qualify for Yes; only full control over an operational nuclear weapon counts. Any admission by Israel of possessing a nuclear weapon does not qualify for Yes. For this market, a 'US ally' is a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
Reported by @Reuters