Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if there is a military encounter between the armed forces of China, the People’s Republic of China, and the Philippines between November 11, 2025 and January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. A “military encounter” means an incident involving the use of force, including missile strikes, artillery fire, an exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions do not qualify. Warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, missile launches that land in territorial waters, or missile launches that pass through airspace do not count. Intentional ship ramming that causes significant damage, such as a hole in the hull, or sinks a military ship qualifies for Yes. Minor damage, including scrapes or dents, does not qualify. For this market, the China Coast Guard (CCG) is considered part of the military, but the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Reported by @Reuters
