Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to “Yes” if any Anthropic Claude model reaches at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” For this market, “accuracy” refers only to the figure labeled “HLE Accuracy,” or to a clearly equivalent metric if the leaderboard’s format or terminology changes. Calibration Error and any other displayed metric will not be considered. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If that source becomes unavailable during the relevant period, this market will remain open to allow the data to become available again. If the source is still unavailable after the end of the timeframe, or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reported by Versus Markets