Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of at least two NATO member states between market creation and 05:59 CET on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, an exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between the military forces of at least two NATO member states. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to a military ship (e.g. a hole in the hull) or its sinking will count towards a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage such as scrapes or dents will not. Note: for the purposes of this market, coast guard services or equivalent forces will be considered part of a country's military only if they are officially designated as military forces under that country's law or command structure; purely civilian or law-enforcement maritime agencies will not be considered military forces. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reported by Versus Markets