Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping three-month periods, for example ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, or DJF. This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve to "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution. No subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered, and no revision will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. Note: the source text calls RONI the "Regional Ocean Niño Index". NOAA's actual name for it is the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, which has been used here.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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