Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date. If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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