Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military or their authorised representatives publicly and officially announce that the United States will withdraw completely from Al Udeid Air Base, at any point between market creation and 05:59 CET/CEST on October 1, 2026. Otherwise it resolves to "No". A complete withdrawal means a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement that the United States is presently implementing a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base, has already implemented one that was not previously announced, or has definitively decided to implement one. An announcement of such a decision qualifies regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain there for a period before the withdrawal is completed. The announcement must identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base clearly and unambiguously. No particular terminology is required, provided the substance is unmistakable. An announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid, or that it will withdraw all troops from Qatar, which necessarily includes Al Udeid, would qualify. A vague statement that the United States will reduce its troop presence in the Middle East would not. The announcement must also come through official channels from someone acting in an official capacity. Remarks made incidentally or informally, in a context not intended as official communication, do not count. Nor do anonymous, unattributed or leaked statements that have not been officially confirmed, statements by people not authorised to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military, third-party speculation, analysis or predictions that such an announcement or withdrawal is coming, satirical, fabricated, hacked or impersonated communications, or statements describing a prospective, contingent, probable or conditional withdrawal rather than a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement has been made, this market resolves to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed or whether the withdrawal is ever actually carried out. Resolution is based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military and their official representatives.
Reported by Versus Markets