Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent January 1, 2026, 6:00 AM CET through January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. Primary source: the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository (https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/), using the 'Impact Energy (kt)' column. If that dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the repository becomes permanently unavailable, this may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus such as a NASA press release.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
