Prediction
Answer Options
Resolves YES if the share of valid votes cast for Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on 4 October 2026 comes to 39 percent or more. Otherwise NO. His share is his valid votes divided by every valid vote cast in that round. A figure landing exactly on 39 percent counts as YES, because a value sitting precisely on the line between two bands belongs to the higher band. If he is not on the first-round ballot, or ends up with no valid votes at all, it is NO. The official count settles it. Where a recount begins before the totals are made official, the answer waits until that recount has finished and the totals are official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it is NO. Broad agreement across credible reporting settles the outcome, not any single outlet; where that reporting is ambiguous, the official results published by the Brazilian government - its electoral court, the TSE, among them - settle it on their own.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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