Prediction
Answer Options
Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City’s minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030. Details of the proposal are available here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/ This market resolves Yes only if both conditions are met: Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 New York City mayoral election, and a policy is enacted in New York City before January 1, 2027, at 5:59 AM CET, establishing a minimum wage of at least $30 per hour that takes effect by December 31, 2030, or earlier. A qualifying policy may be enacted through a local or state law or a mayoral executive order that legally brings the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. Introducing, proposing, or announcing such a policy without legal enactment does not qualify. A policy that establishes a structured, multi-year increase to at least $30 per hour in New York City qualifies for an immediate Yes if it explicitly states that the wage will reach that level by the specified date. Limited or temporary pilot programmes do not qualify if they are not formally intended to expand citywide, including policies that apply only to selected boroughs, neighbourhoods, or time periods. Policies containing limited exceptions, such as exceptions for restaurant workers, still qualify as long as they establish a general New York City minimum wage of at least $30 per hour by 2030. If credible reporting confirms that Mamdani lost the 2025 New York City mayoral election, the market immediately resolves No. It also resolves No if the stated policy and election conditions are not both satisfied within the market’s timeframe. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @caroljsroth
