Prediction
Answer Options
This market resolves Yes if Iran conducts a nuclear test on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. A nuclear test means an intentional, non-combat detonation by Iran of a device that produces a nuclear chain reaction, whether fission or fusion, regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices, including “dirty bombs” that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives, and actions by third parties do not count. A test does not need to be explicitly claimed by Iran to qualify. It can still count if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed detonation analogous to the 1979 “Vela Incident” would qualify if credible reporting attributed it to Iran. Resolution is based on a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Reported by @Reuters