Prediction
Answer Options
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hamas officially announces by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET that it will disarm in the Gaza Strip. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying announcement must come from Hamas’s widely recognized leadership or another official Hamas authority. “Disarm” means a public commitment by Hamas to relinquish or dismantle its military capabilities in the Gaza Strip, whether in whole or in part. Announcements of partial disarmament — for example, surrendering a category of weapons, or agreeing to disarm in stages or in a specific area — will qualify if they are part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, conditional proposals, non-binding expressions of intent, or other statements that do not amount to a formal policy announcement will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming that Hamas has adopted a policy of disarmament will also qualify.
Reported by Versus Markets